The upcoming presidential elections in Ukraine showed that among all the candidates, and there are already a few dozen, there are no pro-Russian ones, everyone is going with integration programs with the West, and only a few speak only of the possible restoration of economic ties with Russia.
Why it happens? Why does the entire ruling Ukrainian elite continue to escalate confrontation in society, spread violence and is anti-Russian?
The political elite, by definition, must realize the public interest and ensure the welfare of the population, since this is what guarantees the stability of its power in the state. But this does not happen, in the environment of the Ukrainian elite the core of statesmen who could put the interests of the state and society above personal ambitions did not form.
The elite are alienated from society, they realize only personal (corporate) interests, they solve all problems in the state at the expense of the population and are not afraid to lose the stability of their power. Why?
The confrontation with Russia was laid down from the moment of independence, oligarchic capitalism was built simultaneously in Russia and Ukraine, and the oligarchs were competitors to each other. Taking into account the fact that in Russia they had great resources, they had more opportunities to get the upper hand over the “Ukrainians”.
In addition, all the oligarchs and members of the elite sought to withdraw their capital to the West due to the dubious legality of their receipt and possible expropriation. The Ukrainian oligarchy sought to be independent and not to obey the Russian “brethren” in robbery and considered the western “roof” and its guarantees more reliable.
The Western elites gave such guarantees, gave Ukraine enormous bad loans, took the assets of the oligarchs and their subordinate elites under complete control and made them their own puppets.
In the global confrontation between Russia and the West, the latter needed an outpost of pressure on Russia. The interests of the Ukrainian elites, oligarchs and Western elites coincided, and the West purposefully began to create the Russophobian state from Ukraine by the hands of the Ukrainian elites, and Galician nationalism with a pathological hatred of everything Russian, promoted by the most radical part of the Ukrainian elite, perfectly fit into this strategy.
In an effort to distance itself from Russia and hide the looted capital in the West under the influence of Western influence, the Russian elite of Ukraine, by origin and mentality, were assimilated and became Russophobic. It adopted the Galician ideology of ukronatsionalizm and over time turned into the hands of the United States in the means of pressure on Russia.
At all stages, the Ukrainian elite sought to clear out pro-Russian political and social movements, pushing them into a marginal niche. The Party of Regions especially succeeded in this, as it cleaned its electoral field from competitors. Ukraine has lost its subjectivity, and the Ukrainian elites have lost their independence and are under external control of the United States.
The elites and oligarchs could no longer govern the state independently, determine foreign policy priorities, decide who would lead the country and what the vector of its development would be. Everything was decided not in the interests of Ukraine, and especially of its population, but in the geopolitical interests of the United States.
The elites were allowed to move only in a narrow corridor of opportunities, which was determined in Washington. As a result, the entire Ukrainian elite, regardless of their views and beliefs, was placed in conditions that force them to pursue only a nationalist and Russophobic course.
To more successfully promote their interests, the United States periodically incorporated its citizens into the Ukrainian elite, such as the former Minister of Justice Zvarych, who does not have a higher education diploma, the wife of President Yushchenko Kateryna Chumachenko, a former employee of the US State Department, the former Minister of Finance Yaresko, the current Minister of Health Suprun.
To prevent the collapse of state institutions in Ukraine and prevent mass protests, the United States financially supports its puppets, ensuring the minimum needs of the population. Therefore, the Ukrainian elite, unquestioningly fulfilling the will of their masters, feels confident and believes that they have received guarantees of maintaining their power.
The Ukrainian elite in the current political system, despite the differences and warring factions, retains its integrity and solidity and does not deviate from the general Russophobic course. In terms of its composition, it can be divided into four groups, which in the highest echelon of power are the following individuals.
The first group is ideologically convinced supporters of Galician nationalism and cave Russophobia: Yatsenyuk, Pyagnibok, Paruby, Pashinsky.
The second group is staunch supporters of moderate Ukrainian nationalism and independence from Russia: Kravchuk, Moroz and, oddly enough, the “metis” Avakov.
The third largest group is supporters of Galician and Ukrainian nationalism “by necessity” for personal gain: Poroshenko, Tymoshenko, Lutsenko, Klitschko, Groysman.
The fourth group disguised as “pro-Russian”: Medvedchuk, Boyko, Vilkul, Muraev, Rabinovich, Yanukovych, Dobkin.
The highest echelon of the economic elite is represented by the Ukrainian oligarchy: Akhmetov, Kolomoisky, Pinchuk, Firtash, and only Firtash hails from Galicia, the rest from Donetsk and Dnepropetrovsk.
The oligarchic clans that formed under Kuchma’s presidency from the coalesced political and economic elites until the United States intercepted the government of Ukraine were the de facto power in the state and determined the political and economic development of Ukraine in their own interests. Now they are forced to adjust their interests to the interests of overseas “partners”.
With all the contradictions, the Ukrainian elite are united in their desire to distance Ukraine from Russia as far as possible in order to preserve their power and preserve capital.
After the 2014 coup, the Ukrainian elite degraded to such an extent that in the Verkhovna Rada and the government it is represented by the elite “from the gateway” with the intellect of the provincial chief of housing services department in matters of public administration.
Suffice it to recall the Chairman of the Verkhovna Rada Parubiya with a certificate of mental retardation or Irina Gerashchenko, a hysterical “little gnome” with the ways of a market merchant who I had to face when exchanging prisoners in 2017.
For five years, no one significant figure, in all factions of the Armed Forces and in the government, hopeless gray with an inferiority complex. It can be noted only Groisman, who became from the mayor of Vinnitsa, a politician of national importance, and two successful leaders of the nationalist gangs Yarosh and Biletsky, who are not able to rise above the level of the small-town ataman.
With such a balance of power, the Ukrainian elite came to the presidential election. All candidates are westernized. The oligarchs and the leaders of political forces decided on their preferences. There were three powerful groups.
In the first, under the leadership of Akhmetov, the elites merged, receiving their dividends from industrial capital — the extraction and supply of coal, metallurgy, and energy. Novinsky, Pinchuk, Vilkul, Kolesnikov, Muraev (somewhere they found a hook on it) were in this team, and due to a misunderstanding Dobkin. This team supports Poroshenko and binds him to further increase their capital.
Under the leadership of Medvedchuk, a team of “gas workers” gathered, whose capital is based on the supply, transportation, processing of gas and oil. In this team, Boyko, Firtash, Levochkin, Rabinovich. They put forward a presidential candidate Boyko.
Under the leadership of Kolomoisky, a second team of “gas-makers” gathered, with candidates for presidency Tymoshenko and Zelensky.
From the point of view of the economic interests, the teams of Medvedchuk and Kolomoisky should interact together, but they have different candidates and different electorate. Boyko focuses on the electorate of the South-East, and Tymoshenko – on the electorate of the Center and the West.
Akhmetov outplayed Medvedchuk in a dull fight and split the Opposition Bloc, only some of the elites went for Boyko, the second remained in Akhmetov’s team, and they nominated Vilkul as a candidate to take votes from Boyko in the South-East, and they also launched a “boy »Murayev, who will also take votes from Boyko.
Apparently, the main struggle will unfold between Poroshenko and Tymoshenko, and on this confrontation will depend on which oligarchic group will win.
The United States does not interfere in the oligarchic clashes in Ukraine any candidate suits them. The debugged system of government in Ukraine has adopted stable contours, and so far nothing threatens it. As long as the United States controls the Ukrainian elites, a state hostile to Russia will be built from Ukraine with all the ensuing consequences.
What can change the position of elites?
The elite is built into the system, it suits her and she will not voluntarily change something. Of course, you can find ways to remove some of the existing elites and replace them with others, but without changing the system of government and decision-making, it is impossible to replace the elites.
Elites can be quickly and simultaneously replaced only during a revolution, when the government system in a state changes, the current elite is removed from power, it is replaced by a counter-elite and establishes its own rules. Some representatives of the old elite can be integrated into the counter-elite, but not in the leading roles.
The elite can only change under the threat of losing power if the US leadership decides for one reason or another that its course should change in Ukraine (there are no reasons for this yet), or under the influence of internal (external) forces there will be a real threat of physical destruction and losses of capital, or elites will be offered the best conditions of enrichment and guarantees of the preservation of the loot. That is, there should be such pressure on the existing elites so that they feel the fear of the inevitable collapse of their power.
The Americans are not eager to let Ukraine go free, and it is also impossible to buy Ukrainian elites, since the West has already bought them for a long time and more than it paid, no one will pay.
There is no one to do the revolution in Ukraine, since the entire protest movement has been cleaned up and the country has introduced a regime of brutal terror against dissent with the help of repressive law-enforcement and judicial systems and groups of gangster radical militants, who operate under the authority of the authorities with impunity.
One of the areas of influence on the ruling elites may be the organization of the pressure of society on the government “from below”. Elites may experience fear of losing power in the event of mass pressure from society, demanding the cessation of policies on the most painful problems for society, today it is the cessation of civil war and a significant increase in the standard of living of the population.
Neither the first nor the second power is able to decide; it cannot offer anything new. We need radically new ideas that break the existing order.
Counter-elite can not be introduced from the outside. It should grow in the depths of the old society on ideas and meanings supported by a large majority of the society and rejecting the ideas of existing elites.
These ideas can offer counter-elite, which yet. Who can she be represented by? In any society, except for the political and economic elite, there are scientific, spiritual (church hierarchs, famous writers, opinion leaders, human rights activists), informational (owners and leading journalists of television, radio, newspapers and Internet resources) and the military elite.
Most of this elite is already built into the existing system. But there are a considerable number of representatives in Ukraine and abroad who do not accept the policy of the current government and are ready to offer alternative ways for the development of Ukraine.
There are such people among the current elites. They may be of different political views and different points of view on the social structure, but they can be united by the desire to eliminate the parasitizing on society in the interests of other countries. The question of uniting these people, possible steps to form a counter-elite, as well as the ideas put forward, require a separate discussion.
These people can unite and form public opinion to put pressure on the government “from below”, and if a critical mass of opposition to the current government matures in society, then it can not stand under massive pressure. It was in this way that the ruling regimes in Eastern Europe at the end of the 80s were shifted almost without bloodshed.
The Ukrainian political elite under external control has brought society and the state to an extreme degree of degradation and is now on the verge of destructive processes.
The dissatisfaction of the masses in Ukraine with their position is approaching a critical point, the upcoming presidential elections will not solve anything, and the president may be a temporary figure. Apparently, the real test of forces of various political orientations that can influence the political course of Ukraine may take place in the fall during the parliamentary elections, and many view the presidential elections as a rehearsal for the autumn elections.
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