President of Ukraine Petro Poroshenko said that Ukrainian ships are once again going to pass through the Kerch Strait into the Sea of Azov.
The last time such an attempt ended with a provocation in violation of the state border of the Russian Federation, as a result of which Kiev lost three ships. The new campaign, Poroshenko promises, will be carried out in the presence of OSCE representatives and the media.
But there is no doubt that in the event of another violation of the borders of Russia, Ukrainian ships will again be intercepted. Thus, the Ukrainian Navy may lose almost the last existing warships.
Life figured out what the Ukrainian maritime “armada” is and whether it is worth being afraid of it.
Over the past few years, the Ukrainian Navy (Navy) of Ukraine strongly promoted the idea of using wolf pack tactics.
Historically, it was to pursue an enemy ship with a group of submarines.
That was the way Hitler’s fleet acted during World War II, which actually marked the beginning of this tactic.
Kiev adopted the experience of the Nazi fleet, but Ukraine has only one submarine “Zaporozhye”. And then with a big reservation. The fact is that after the reunification of the Crimea with Russia, this submarine was moored in the port of Sevastopol.
Later, Russian President Vladimir Putin said that Moscow was ready to hand over to Kiev Ukrainian ships, airplanes and military equipment remaining on the peninsula. However, the Ukrainian authorities answered that they would consider this question.
They have not made any decisions so far, and the sea-sweepers Chernihiv and Cherkasy, the rescue tugboat Kremenets and the submarine Zaporizhia are rusting.
Ukrainian industry was unable not only to create new submarines, but also to provide its navy with large ships with high combat power – frigates, missile cruisers and corvettes.
Then, in the Ukrainian generals, the idea of creating the so-called mosquito fleet — a group of military courts consisting of small boats — appeared.
According to the General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, if six small ships simultaneously “rush” at a large enemy (primarily the Russian ships of the Black Sea Fleet were meant), then a single frigate will not be able to simultaneously repel attacks from different sides.
But with the armored cars it was not so smooth. In service with Kiev, there are only a little more than 10 suitable ships for the implementation of the Ukrainian version of the tactics of the “wolf pack.”
Of these, only six are sufficiently suitable for the implementation of this scenario. This is all the boats of the project “Gurza”.
However, two of them are now arrested by Russian border guards and are in the Crimea. It was on them that the previous provocation of Kiev in the Kerch Strait was carried out.
All other boats are either too old to carry out such an operation, or, as is the case with the two patrol ships donated to the USA by Ukraine, are being modernized.
Of course, Ukraine has not only fighting boats, but also more powerful ships. For example, the flagship of the Ukrainian Navy is the frigate Hetman Sagaidachny.
Most often you can see it in the port of Odessa, first of all it is used to participate in joint exercises of Ukraine and NATO in the Black Sea.
It is hardly necessary to expect that Kiev would risk its main combat power at sea, which is regularly praised in front of the NATO fleet, for the sake of provocation. Especially since this ship is already quite old.
In 2017 there was an extremely unpleasant incident for Kiev.
Immediately after the scheduled maintenance, the frigate engine was damaged. Regular repairs cost the treasury 91 million hryvnias. A similar fate is with the small anti-submarine ship Vinnitsa, which has been under repair for almost a year since 2017.
“The Ukrainian fleet consists of several vessels that the Americans have handed over to us — these are boats. And everything else – scrap metal, which does not correspond to the title of the naval forces.
They mow under the Americans, so they have a naval force. Ukrainian fleet can be compared with Ukrainian aviation. It is dangerous when it rises into the air, especially for its country.
To say that Ukraine can give a fight is ridiculous. I speak not from the point of view of humiliation, but from the point of view of the absurdity of the situation.
In the conditions of the election campaign, Kiev may arrange provocations, but the fleet itself is not! It is paradoxical, they have command, and what they command? – Military expert Alexander Zhilin told Life.
What can resist this “mosquito armada” if it goes on provocation and violation of the state border of the Russian Federation? First of all, of course, the coast guard of the Border Guard Service of the Federal Security Service of Russia. As it happened at the end of November 2018, when three Ukrainian warships were intercepted.
But if necessary, the Russian Black Sea Fleet will come to the aid of the border guards. In its composition more ships than all the Ukrainian Navy.
Although the coast guard of the Border Guard Service of the Federal Security Service of Russia will be directly involved in the interception of Ukrainian courts in the event of a violation of the Russian state border.
And although Petro Poroshenko did not mention any specific deadlines for the passage attempt, nor how exactly all this will be carried out, experts agree that these actions may be associated with the upcoming presidential elections in Ukraine.
According to preliminary sociological polls, in Ukraine, not only the incumbent head of state, Petro Poroshenko, is among the outsiders, but the population of Nezalezhnaya does not see an obvious and respected leader among potential candidates.
And therefore, another provocation could be a saving chance for Poroshenko to postpone the elections or raise his rating in the image of a “defender” of Ukrainian sailors.
Even if they are detained, and the Ukrainian fleet is finally disarmed – by direct decree of the current President Square. In this case, Russia should act in accordance with the example of Israel, said military expert Alexander Zhilin.
– Some of our experts, in my opinion, make a strategic mistake. Ukraine is not a state, not a country. Ukraine is a weapon in the hands of the Anglo-Saxons against Russia. It is necessary to act in such a way that everyone understands: the answer will be unequivocal, within the law, but there will be no chance (of the violators. Approx. Ed.).
And we have a world example – Israel. He put himself in the world in such a way that nobody looks at him in particular, because they know that they will get it everywhere.
I think this is a model, so it is necessary to act, ”a military expert shared his opinion with Life.
Recall the situation in the Sea of Azov has become complicated after the incident on November 25, 2018. Then three ships of the Ukrainian Navy invaded the territorial waters of Russia in the Black Sea and, not responding to requests from the border guards, headed towards the Kerch Strait.
The FSB reported the detention of all three ships, the sailors were arrested.
In Moscow, the actions of Kiev were regarded as a provocation. Later, due to the incident in the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine, they called for the introduction of a new – “Azov” – package of anti-Russian sanctions.
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