Today we can almost confidently talk about the imminent departure of Petro Poroshenko from the presidency. He has not yet made a single step to close the rating gap with Vladimir Zelensky.
On the contrary, the guarantor hit a perfect dill, accusing his rival of drug addiction and hanging billboards “Either I, or Putin” across the country.
Meanwhile, less than two weeks left before the second round of elections. For which Poroshenko is unlikely to seriously change the situation in their favor. Even if he suddenly dismisses odious protégés like Semotchko and Demchina, and also sends Svinarchuk-Gladkovsky to prison. And for a snack – sell Roshen.
Therefore, at the moment the question is no longer about whether Petro Poroshenko will leave the presidency, but about how exactly he will leave.
Moreover, the precedents in Ukraine were different. Part of the presidents, despite the obvious sins, remained inviolable. But Poroshenko’s predecessor, Viktor Yanukovych, fled the country.
Three main scenarios have been named that can unfold after losing the current guarantor in the second round.
The most conservative scenario is that Petro Poroshenko will lose his presidency, but he will leave peacefully and remain in the country, hoping in six months to get his own faction in parliament. And there to become an opposition, and to get the deputy immunity for yourself.
There are certain prerequisites for such a scenario.
As the first round of elections showed, the level of support for Poroshenko is now above the 5 percent barrier to passing to the Rada (even despite all the manipulations with the counting of votes, stuffing and bribing). And after the first months of Zelensky’s presidency, voters may experience a first disappointment with Ze’s policies.
And on this wave Poroshenko can expect to get not such a bad result.
However, it is possible that it will be different.
First, Zelensky may well, after being elected, behave differently from Poroshenko’s own time, who almost immediately violated all these promises.
If Ze launches a series of breakthrough initiatives and will be consistent in defending them – then his popularity will endure until the fall.
Secondly, the current rating of Poroshenko is the rating of the current president. If he goes to the opposition, he is unlikely to remain at the current level.
From it go voters who support any power. Plus, leave the “additive” in the form of adminresrusa and bribing. And in this case, the remaining interest may not be enough to overcome the passing berrier.
Third, and most importantly, Poroshenko may even be in prison before the election. All the more, that plant him there is for what. And many who benefit from it.
Starting from Zelensky, who will hold his rating with the help of a show with the landing of his “front man” and ending with many people offended by his power.
Will Poroshenko in such a situation receive any guarantees of security for himself and his business from Western partners? Hard to say.
That is, the risk is high for him. Of course, Poroshenko can go to him, hoping that the verdict will not have time to make a sentence before the elections, and then he will fall into the Rada, will receive deputy immunity and be released under fanfare as a “prisoner of conscience.”
But, as stated above, it’s far from a fact that his party will be able to overcome the 5% barrier (especially since Poroshenko’s landing will be accompanied by a massive release of compromising material), and his business will not be torn apart by numerous detractors and his partners who have gone over to the side new power.
On the one hand, Poroshenko has where to run. At least in sunny Spain, where the guarantor has a nice villa.
And from there, in relative safety, one can prepare for a new life. Bargaining with the new government.
On the other hand, extradition arrest, in the case of an official request from Ukraine, may spoil Poroshenko’s well-deserved rest.
And the government of any more or less civilized country is unlikely to have arguments to defend the owner of “Roshen.” For them, he is no longer a president, but a downed pilot.
Of course, there are more exotic options, like Northern Cyprus, the Kingdom of Bhutan or the Solomon Islands, which do not have extradition to Ukraine. Or Moldova, where Poroshenko’s friend actually rules — oligarch Plakhotnyuk. But this is an extreme option for the Ukrainian president.
The second problem with the flight is the safety of business in Ukraine. Yes, during the years of Poroshenko’s presidency, he hastily brought assets offshore – this is what the scandal with the “Panamanian securities” shows.
But if the ex-president falls out of the political struggle in Ukraine, then it will be extremely difficult to protect chocolate and other business physically located in the country.
In the end, Poroshenko himself introduced the mechanism of sanctions, when the work of enterprises was blocked out of court, a simple decision of the National Security Council. But the Security Council will be under the control of the new president.
And the third difficulty — emigration (especially to “banana” countries) nullifies all the prospects of Poroshenko as a Ukrainian politician.
Therefore, theoretically, it is impossible to discount the third, the most extreme, option.
The option that involves having Poroshenko’s determination and ability to take a very big risk. This is an attempt to legally and by force hold on to power, declaring the election results illegitimate.
Further, the situation may develop in several dimensions.
First, in legal. You can try to question the results through the court.
However, this looks unrealistic: after the first round, Pyotr Alekseevich began to fall vertically, including the curator of the courts from AP Filatov, who is on the verge of resignation. The result is too low – even despite the # Grid.
It is unlikely that after losing, he will be able to force the courts to obey themselves, as before.
That is, the judicial history will allow Poroshenko to gain the maximum time – but not to undo the victory of Zelensky.
But the guarantor can go under the most radical scenario.
For example, declare that “Putin is ready to seize Ukraine” and try to rely on the regions that gave the current president the most votes on March 31. This is Lviv and Ivano-Frankivsk.
That is – in fact to raise on revolt Western Ukraine. Which refuses to recognize the legitimacy of Zelensky.
And then the situation will be suspended and go into the negotiations. Or go to a tough confrontation until the actual separation of Galicia and the creation of a sort of ZUNR-2 (ZUNR – Western Ukrainian People’s Republic, created after the collapse of Austria-Vengiya in 1918-1919). And the creation of a sort of ZUNR-2 (ZUNR – Western Ukrainian People’s Republic, created after the collapse of Austria-Vengiya in 1918-1919).
The idea of such a variant is suggested by the recent Poroshenko “I or Putin” billboards. Many perceived them as some kind of complete nonsense and agony. But this is viewed from the point of view of the logic of a normal person.
And if you look from the point of view of a person who is already preparing the ground for splitting the country, then such a confrontational message is quite understandable. That is, if Zelensky is Putin, then his victory cannot be recognized.
It is possible that such propaganda can mobilize a certain number of people in support of Poroshenko. Especially in Western Ukraine. What creates the ground for open disobedience of this region to “green” Kiev.
Theoretically, some military units could also support the revolt by refusing to swear allegiance to Zelensky.
But against this scenario is the factor that Poroshenko himself is unpopular both in Western Ukraine and among the troops. In the army, the voices between him and Zelensky were almost equally divided.
Yes, nationalist-minded Ukrainians, when choosing Zelensky or Poroshenko, will rather vote for the latter. But only as for the lesser of evils, and not as for their leader and spiritual leader.
For the revolt and open disobedience of the central government, most of them are unlikely to go for Poroshenko.
Yes, and Zelensky, despite all the efforts Poroshenko, does not pull on the pro-Russian politician, and even in Western Ukraine, the majority of the population does not see him as an “agent of the Kremlin”. He declares a campaign in NATO, surrounded himself with the “chicks of Soros” and promised “not to send to the @p” the IMF.
Finally, the scenario of rebellion in Western Ukraine is possible only if the project is supported by the West. Or, at least, the United States and Poland.
But so far, nothing indicates that Washington is ready to play this game and destabilize Ukraine, which it obviously intends to continue to use as a lever of pressure on Russia.
In general, while the script number 3 looks extremely fantastic. Although, of course, the annexation of the Crimea to Russia, and the war in the Donbas seemed quite fantastic about 6 years ago. Therefore, 100%, unfortunately, nothing can be ruled out.
Moreover, even now, according to the Ukrainian media, Bank representatives are negotiating with the military for their possible disobedience to Zelensky.
And it remains to hope that even before the elections, Poroshenko will receive sufficiently clear signals from both internal forces and external partners that his rebellion after the elections will have fatal consequences for him.
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